Since I started paying close attention to Venezuela in 2007, I have relied on the annual population figures* from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, or National Statistics Agency.
As you can see on the estimates page, the 2011 population figure was supposed to be 29,277,736. As it happens, the INE did a census in 2011. It was supposed to last from August to November, but was extended to ensure that they counted everyone. The results won’t come out for another year, but the INE page gives the current progress of the “empadronamiento,” or roll-taking. As of Jan. 3 2012, they were up to 26,840,935.
In other words there were 2,436,801 people who were in Venezuela, according to the estimates, but weren’t there, according to the census. That is a very big difference. The estimate as of 2011 was 9.1 percent higher than the number of people counted as of Jan. 3.
This matters for some important statistics. For example, we hear various numbers about how many people are killed each year, and I’m not just now going to get into the details of that debate. But Venezuelan Interior Minister Tarek Al-Aissami said almost a year ago that in 2010, the country’s murder rate was 48 per 100,000. But if the population was being overcounted by 9.1 percent, the rate would be 52.3 percent — moving Venezuela ahead of Jamaica into third place worldwide on this grim table.
Speaking of murder rates, I have to wonder how much of an effect homicide has on these mass population figures. I suspect there is a significant effect. That’s because the INE also tells how many males and females of each age group died in 2009, and how many males and females of each age group were estimated to exist. The male death rate exceeded the female rate for all age groups. Barring the possibility of female immortality (something we’ll have to look into in a future article), it looks like one of two things. Female deaths may be going unreported across many age groups, which would be odd. Or male population has been overestimated. The death rates, by age, were:
Sources: Defunciones registradas por grupo de edad y sexo, 2009
Población masculina, según grupos de edad al 30 de Junio, 2000-2015
Población femenina, según grupos de edad al 30 de Junio, 2000-2015
(And look: the INE lets you download them all as Excel files. This is great.)
There may also be a demographic effect from increased emigration out of Venezuela and from decreased immigration, particularly from Colombia. It will be interesting to see the Census results when the final counts are released. The current plan is to put them out in the second half of 2012. But the agency will have to finish counting first.
* I see the page is corrupted. Where the words “Total Masculino Feminino” should be, it has “2005 2006 2007″. But so it goes.